Hip fracture risk assessment: Artificial neural network outperforms conditional logistic regression in an age- and sex-matched case control study

Copyright @ 2013 Tseng et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background - Osteoporotic hip fractures with a significant morbidity and excess mortality among the elderly have imposed huge health and economic burdens on societies worldwide. In this age- and sex-matched case control study, we examined the risk factors of hip fractures and assessed the fracture risk by conditional logistic regression (CLR) and ensemble artificial neural network (ANN). The performances of these two classifiers were compared. Methods - The study population consisted of 217 pairs (149 women and 68 men) of fractures and controls with an age older than 60 years. All the participants were interviewed with the same standardized questionnaire including questions on 66 risk factors in 12 categories. Univariate CLR analysis was initially conducted to examine the unadjusted odds ratio of all potential risk factors. The significant risk factors were then tested by multivariate analyses. For fracture risk assessment, the participants were randomly divided into modeling and testing datasets for 10-fold cross validation analyses. The predicting models built by CLR and ANN in modeling datasets were applied to testing datasets for generalization study. The performances, including discrimination and calibration, were compared with non-parametric Wilcoxon tests. Results - In univariate CLR analyses, 16 variables achieved significant level, and six of them remained significant in multivariate analyses, including low T score, low BMI, low MMSE score, milk intake, walking difficulty, and significant fall at home. For discrimination, ANN outperformed CLR in both 16- and 6-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?<?0.005). For calibration, ANN outperformed CLR only in 16-variable analyses in modeling and testing datasets (p?=?0.013 and 0.047, respectively). Conclusions - The risk factors of hip fracture are more personal than environmental. With adequate model construction, ANN may outperform CLR in both discrimination and calibration. ANN seems to have not been developed to its full potential and efforts should be made to improve its performance.National Health Research Institutes in Taiwa

More intramedullary nails and arthroplasties for treatment of hip fractures in Sweden: Registry analysis of 144,607 patients, 1998–2007

Background and purpose The surgical methods for treatment of femoral neck fractures and trochanteric hip fractures vary. We describe the changes in Sweden over the period 1998-2007 and the regional differences in treatment. Patients and methods Data on 144,607 patients were drawn from the National Patient Register. Results The proportion of femoral neck fractures treated with arthroplasty increased from 10% in 1998 to 52% in 2007. The use of intramedullary (IM) nails for pertrochanteric fractures increased from 5% to 20%, at the expense of the use of different sliding hip screws. In subtrochanteric fractures, the use of IM nails increased from 32% to 72%. Re-admissions within 180 days due to hip complications were more common after internal fixation for femoral neck fractures than after arthroplasty, and more common after intramedullary nailing of pertrochanteric fractures than after use of sliding hip screws. Treatment varied substantially within Sweden, particularly regarding the use of IM nails. Interpretation An increase in arthroplasties reflects an evidence-based treatment rationale for femoral neck fractures, whereas the increase in use of IM nails in pertrochanteric fractures lacks scientific support. The geographic variations call for national treatment guidelines. Further clinical trials are needed to solve the treatment issues regarding per- and subtrochanteric fractures

The hip fracture incidence curve is shifting to the right: A forecast of the age-quake

Background The number of hip fractures has doubled in the last 30–40 years in many countries. Age-adjusted incidence has been reported to be decreasing in Europe and North America, but is there a decreasing trend in all age groups

Prevalence of vertebral fractures in women and men in the population-based Tromsø Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Osteoporotic vertebral fractures are, as the hip fractures, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Norway has one of the highest reported incidences of hip fractures in the world. Because of methodological challenges, vertebral fractures are not extensively studied. The aim of this population based study was to describe, for the first time, the age- and sex specific occurrence of osteoporotic vertebral fractures in Norway.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected in the Tromso Study, 2007/8 survey. By the use of dual x-ray absorptiometry (GE Lunar Prodigy) vertebral fracture assessments were performed in 2887 women and men aged from 38 to 87 years, in addition to measurements of bone mineral density at the femoral sites. Information on lifestyle was collected through questionnaires. Comparisons between fractures and non-fractures were done sex stratified, by univariate analyses, adjusting for age when relevant.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of vertebral fractures varied from about 3% in the age group below 60 to about 19% in the 70+ group in women, and from 7.5% to about 20% in men, with an overall prevalence of 11.8% in women and 13.8% in men (<it>p </it>= 0.07). Among those with fractures, only one fracture was the most common; two and more fractures were present in approximately 30% of the cases. Fractures were seen from the fourth lumbar to the fifth thoracic vertebrae, most common between first lumbar and sixth thoracic vertebrae. The most common type of fracture was the wedge type in both sexes. Bone mineral density at the hip differed significantly according to type of fracture, being highest in those with wedge fractures and lowest in those with compression fractures.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prevalence of vertebral fractures increased by age in women and men, but the overall prevalence was lower than expected, considering the high prevalence of hip and forearm fractures in Norway. In both sexes, the wedge type was the fracture type most frequently observed and most common in the thoracic region.</p

Comparison of hip fracture incidence and trends between Germany and Austria 1995-2004: An epidemiological study

Mann E, Meyer G, Haastert B, Icks A. Comparison of hip fracture incidence and trends between Germany and Austria 1995-2004: an epidemiological study. BMC Public Health. 2010;10(1): 46.Background Several studies evaluated variations in hip fracture incidences, as well as trends of the hip fracture incidences. Comparisons of trends are lacking so far. We compared the incidence rates and, in particular, its trends between Austria and Germany 1995 to 2004 analysing national hospital discharge diagnosis register data. Methods Annual frequencies of hip fractures and corresponding incidences per 100,000 person years were estimated, overall and stratified for sex and age, assuming Poisson distribution. Multiple Poisson regression models including country and calendar year, age and sex were used to analyse differences in incidence and trend. The difference of annual changes between the two countries was explored using an interaction term (calender year * country). Results Overall, the increase of hip fracture risk was 1.31 fold higher (95% CI 1.29-1.34) in Austria compared to Germany, adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year. The risk increase was comparable for both sexes (males: RR 1.35 (1.32-1.37), females: RR 1.31 (1.29-1.33)). Hip fracture trend from 1995 to 2004 indicates an increase in both countries without a statistically significant difference between Austria and Germany (interaction term: p = 0.67). Conclusion In this study comparing hip fracture incidences and its trend using pooled data, the incidence in Austria was 30% higher compared to its neighbouring country Germany. For both countries a similar increasing trend of hip fracture incidence over the 10-year study period was calculated. The results need confirmation by other studies

The Oslo Health Study: Is bone mineral density higher in affluent areas?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Based on previously reported differences in fracture incidence in the socioeconomic less affluent Oslo East compared to the more privileged West, our aim was to study bone mineral density (BMD) in the same socioeconomic areas in Oslo. We also wanted to study whether possible associations were explained by socio-demographic factors, level of education or lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Distal forearm BMD was measured in random samples of the participants in The Oslo Health Study by single energy x-ray absorptiometry (SXA). 578 men and 702 women born in Norway in the age-groups 40/45, 60 and 75 years were included in the analyses. Socioeconomic regions, based on a social index dividing Oslo in two regions – East and West, were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age-adjusted mean BMD in women living in the less affluent Eastern region was 0.405 g/cm²and significantly lower than in West where BMD was 0.419 g/cm². Similarly, the odds ratio of low BMD (Z-score ≤ -1) was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.22–2.87) in women in Oslo East compared to West. The same tendency, although not statistically significant, was also present in men. Multivariate analysis adjusted for education, marital status, body mass index, physical inactivity, use of alcohol and smoking, and in women also use of post-menopausal hormone therapy and early onset of menopause, did hardly change the association. Additional adjustments for employment status, disability pension and physical activity at work for those below the age of retirement, gave similar results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found differences in BMD in women between different socioeconomic regions in Oslo that correspond to previously found differences in fracture rates. The association in men was not statistically significant. The differences were not explained by socio-demographic factors, level of education or lifestyle factors.</p

Is health-related quality of life associated with the risk of low-energy wrist fracture: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Some risk factors for low-energy wrist fracture have been identified. However, self-reported measures such as health-related quality of life (HRQOL) have not been examined as potential risk factors for wrist fracture. The aims of this study were to compare HRQOL prior to a low-energy wrist fracture in elderly patients (≥ 50 years) with HRQOL in age- and sex-matched controls, and to explore the association between HRQOL and wrist fracture after adjusting for known risk factors for fracture such as age, weight, osteoporosis and falls.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients with a low-energy wrist fracture (n = 181) and age- and sex-matched controls (n = 181) were studied. Shortly after fracture (median 10 days), patients assessed their HRQOL before fracture using the Short Form 36 (SF-36). Statistical tests included <it>t </it>tests and multivariate logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Several dimensions of HRQOL were significantly associated with wrist fracture. The direction of the associations with wrist fracture varied between the different sub-dimensions of the SF-36. After controlling for demographic and clinical variables, higher scores on <it>general health </it>(odds ratio (OR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10–1.56), <it>bodily pain </it>(OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.03–1.34) and <it>mental health </it>(OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.09–1.79) were related to an increased chance of being a wrist fracture patient rather than a control. In contrast, higher scores on <it>physical role limitation </it>(OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.79–0.95) and <it>social function </it>(OR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.53–0.80) decreased this chance. Significant associations with wrist fracture were also found for living alone (OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.07–3.4), low body mass index (BMI) (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86–0.98), osteoporosis (OR = 3.30, 95% CI 1.67–6.50) and previous falls (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.16–3.49).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Wrist fracture patients perceive themselves to be as healthy as the controls before fracture. Our data indicate that patients with favourable and unfavourable HRQOL measures may be at increased risk of wrist fracture.</p

When, where and how osteoporosis-associated fractures occur: An analysis from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW)

Objective: To examine when, where and how fractures occur in postmenopausal women. Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW), including women aged ≥55 years from the United States of America, Canada, Australia and seven European countries. Women completed questionnaires including fracture data at baseline and years 1, 2 and 3. Results: Among 60,393 postmenopausal women, 4122 incident fractures were reported (86% non-hip, non-vertebral [NHNV], 8% presumably clinical vertebral and 6% hip). Hip fractures were more likely to occur in spring, with little seasonal variation for NHNV or spine fractures. Hip fractures occurred equally inside or outside the home, whereas 65% of NHNV fractures occurred outside and 61% of vertebral fractures occurred inside the home. Falls preceded 68-86% of NHNV and 68-83% of hip fractures among women aged ≤64 to ≥85 years, increasing with age. About 45% of vertebral fractures were associated with falls in all age groups except those ≥85 years, when only 24% occurred after falling. Conclusion: In this multi-national cohort, fractures occurred throughout the year, with only hip fracture having a seasonal variation, with a higher proportion in spring. Hip fractures occurred equally within and outside the home, spine fractures more often in the home, and NHNV fractures outside the home. Falls were a proximate cause of most hip and NHNV fractures. Postmenopausal women at risk for fracture need counseling about reducing potentially modifiable fracture risk factors, particularly falls both inside and outside the home and during all seasons of the year. © 2013 Costa et al

Lower prevalence of hip fractures in foreign-born individuals than in Swedish-born individuals during the period 1987-1999

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This is the first longitudinal study with a 22-year follow-up, based on a national and complete sample, to determine whether the prevalence of hip fracture and the age when it occurs are influenced by migration and by being foreign-born. Cultural background and environmental factors such as UV-radiation and lifestyle during childhood and adolescence may influence the risk of a hip fracture event later in life. Differences in prevalence might occur between the indigenous population and those who have migrated to a country.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was based on national population data. The study population consisted of 321,407 Swedish-born and 307,174 foreign-born persons living in Sweden during the period 1987-1999.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Foreign-born individuals had a reduced risk of hip fracture, with odds ratios (ORs) of 0.47-0.77 for men and 0.42-0.88 for women. Foreign-born women had the hip fracture event at a higher age on average, but a longer time spent in Sweden was associated with a small but significant increase in risk.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found that there was a reduced risk of hip fracture in all foreign-born individuals, and that the hip fracture event generally happened at a higher age in foreign-born women. Migration must therefore be considered in relation to the prevalence and risk of hip fracture. Migration can therefore have a positive effect on one aspect of the health of a population, and can influence and lower the total cost of healthcare due to reduced risk and prevalence of hip fracture.</p